Student Worksheet

COVID-19 Exit Strategy - Activity Instructions

Students will...

You will learn the meanings of key vocabulary related to the pandemic
You will learn strategies that authors use to establish credibility
You will evaluate the use of varying types of evidence
You will cite evidence in your own explanation.

Students can...

You can use strategies to correctly define key vocabulary
You can identify and analyse the effect of different persuasive strategies
You can use your knowledge of the world to evaluate how effective differing types of evidence are
You can use a mentor text to write your own clear explanation.

READ THE CONVERSATION ARTICLE BELOW

It's time to admit our COVID-19 'exit strategy' might just look like a more flexible version of lockdown

Toby Phillips, University of Oxford

As the COVID-19 curve starts to flatten in Australia and New Zealand, people are rightly wondering how we will roll back current lockdown policies. Australia’s federal health minister Greg Hunt says Australia is looking to South Korea, Japan and Singapore to inform our exit strategy. New Zealand is relaxing some measures from next week.

A long-term solution – a vaccine – is many months, probably years, away.

In the meantime, we must rely on social distancing policies to contain the epidemic – and begin to accept the idea that an “exit strategy” may really look more like a more flexible version of lockdown.

What can we learn from other countries?

Total lockdown is not a prerequisite for success, but nonetheless seems to be where most countries are going.

In a study of more than 100 countries, currently under peer review, my colleagues and I find that on average, stricter policies (as measured by what we called a “stringency index”) lead to lower death rates after two to four weeks.

When looking at most of the other countries mentioned by Australian health minister Greg Hunt we see that they are not exiting lockdown but are, in fact, getting stricter.

Indeed, of Minister Hunt’s countries, Japan is the only one that has not escalated its policies recently. It has, however, seen an uptick in daily deaths over the last week, going from an average of five deaths per day to 20.

(COVID-19 deaths is a better measure of epidemic severity than case numbers, as case numbers are vastly underestimated in some countries. For instance, some researchers have estimated that the United Kingdom might have over 10 times more cases than reported.)

South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore all initially managed to keep their curve flat through aggressive testing, a small amount of targeted closures, and voluntary social distancing by citizens.

But from mid-March onwards, these countries started banning small gatherings and closing businesses. First South Korea, then Hong Kong and finally Singapore (with their April 7 “circuit breaker” measures).

Even though they aren’t exiting lockdown, there are still useful lessons: despite being officially “open” at the time, these countries had slow infection growth rates over February and March.

We should add Taiwan to the list of countries to watch. They seem to have the epidemic under control – or close to it – without a national lockdown. The key seems to have been rapid tracing and quarantining, community measures (such as temperature testing checkpoints), and citizen compliance. They have been preparing for a major pandemic since SARS in 2004.

When should we start to loosen the rules?

Last week the Australian prime minister Scott Morrison outlined three things Australia needs to have before restrictions can be lifted:

a more extensive testing regime (including asymptomatic people)
industrial scale contact tracing
stronger local response capabilities.

Broadly speaking, these mirror the criteria set by the WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, three days earlier. Tedros also included that epidemic transmission should be under control and communities must be adjusted to the “new normal”.

On these criteria, Australia is one of the leading countries in the world. For testing, South Korea used to be at the front of the pack, but now we’ve conducted more tests per person than most countries (although not as many as New Zealand or Italy).

In terms of controlling the epidemic, we are averaging around one or two deaths each day. Australia ramped up its policy approach three and half weeks ago; and now we are seeing the curve start to flatten.

So we’re approaching the point where it makes sense to start thinking about loosening rules. But there aren’t really any examples to learn from. China has made the most significant reductions in policy strictness, but it is still too early to assess the impact of this.

What does life look like after lockdown?

Ultimately, we can’t think of lockdown as a national on-off switch. Just as there is an epidemic curve of cases, so too there is a curve of policy responses. Over 200 Australian economists signed an open letter on Monday urging the government not to roll back too far too quickly.

All eyes will be on New Zealand as they reduce their lockdown level next week. It is the first step of a slow and measured roll back – many aspects of a “lockdown” will remain. Some businesses must stay closed. People must still stay at home unless working or making essential trips.

Until a vaccine arrives, containing the virus is about reducing how often people come into contact and how closely – as we saw from Taiwan, a formal lockdown may not be necessary. Data from firms such as Apple and Google can serve as a proxy for people’s movement and likelihood of coming into contact with others.

As Australia was heading into the pandemic, the data in the chart above suggest it took blunt lockdown measures (late-March) for people to reduce their contact with each other (for example, Bondi Beach was closed after crowds gathered there in defiance of social distancing recommendations).

Conversely, individual Singaporeans and South Koreans reduced their level of interaction back in February, without the strict lockdowns that are only just now being implemented in their countries.

Exiting the lockdown doesn’t mean going back to business-as-usual. Under the “new normal” we will need people to behave like Singaporeans and South Koreans did in February: voluntarily limiting contact. Hiking will be back on the cards; big barbecues might not be.

What’s more, we will need to figure out how to scale the response up and down as needed – possibly several times and in ways you might not expect.

We might need to return to full lockdown in a specific place when a flare-up is detected there. This requires new policy instruments to flexible and locally switch areas on and off – not the whole country – to deal with isolated outbreaks.

We can’t remain in a nationwide lockdown forever. If people can voluntarily practise the behaviours that slow the virus’ spread, then the formal lockdown can relax. But life can’t return to how it was before. At least not yet.

The Oxford data on policy measures is available on GitHub, and the data on movement is available from Apple’s website.

Toby Phillips, Public policy researcher, University of Oxford

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Part A: Find The Answers

Step 1.

The table below has some words/phrases from the article and their definitions. Match them by drawing a line or by writing the letter next to the number to show which goes together. It may help you to - look up the words, use the process of elimination, look at how the words are used in context and/or discuss the words with a peer.

1. When the COVID-19 curve starts to flatten	A) How strict something is
2. Prerequisite	B) When the rate of infections per day begins to slow
3. Asymptomatic	C) Needed before you can do something
4. A proxy	D) Sudden outburst or outbreak
5. A flare-up	E) People following the rules
6. Citizen compliance	F) Not showing any symptoms
7. Stringency	G) Something that can stand in the place of something else

Step 2.

Answer the questions below about the article:

• What is the thesis (main argument) of the article?

• The first three paragraphs are an introduction to the article - what are three key points they make?

1.

2.

3.

• What did the authors’ study focus on?

• List the policies that different countries have used.

Part B: Putting It All Together

The text is written by an expert in the field and aims to appeal to people’s rational sides. That means it uses multiple techniques to establish credibility (belief in the author’s expertise and reasoning).

Step 1.

Now, look at the article and copy an example of each type of evidence into the table. Then, explain what that piece of evidence was used to support.

Step 2.

Look at the table below. Consider the pros and cons of each type of evidence that can be referred to. You may want to consider the interest, credibility and general comprehension of each type of evidence.

Step 3.

Modality refers to a speaker's/author’s view or opinion of the world. High modality words express certainty and necessity. Low modality words can express uncertainty or lack of necessity.

Low modality	Medium modality	High modality
Could, doubtful, maybe	Apparently, frequently, likely	Must, necessary, certainly

Whilst referring to evidence adds to credibility, an author also needs to appear reasonable and fair in their explanations. Often, to present as reasonable, to not overstate matters and to appropriately reflect research and known information, experts will use ‘medium modality’ words.

Read the below excerpt from the article. As you read underline or circle or highlight words that express medium modality.

“What’s more, we will need to figure out how to scale the response up and down as needed – possibly several times and in ways you might not expect.

We might need to return to full lockdown in a specific place when a flare-up is detected there. This requires new policy instruments to flexibly and locally switch areas on and off – not the whole country – to deal with isolated outbreaks.

We can’t remain in a nationwide lockdown forever. If people can voluntarily practise the behaviours that slow the virus’ spread, then the formal lockdown can relax. But life can’t return to how it was before. At least not yet.”

Step 4.

Answer the following questions (with reference to the above excerpt)

1. What is something the author uses high modality for? Why do you think they express certainty about that claim?

2. What is something the author uses medium modality for? Why do you think they chose to not write it as certain?

3. What is the overall effect of a mix of high and medium modality? How do you think the impact would change if they used high modality for every sentence?

4. How would the impact change if they used medium or low modality for every sentence?

Step 5.

Consider all of the activities you have done so far. Create a list of four to five ways that you think an author can build credibility.

Start A Conversation

Step 1.

You are going to choose a piece of evidence, or a few related pieces, from the text to write a persuasive paragraph. You will need to include what the evidence is and what you think it shows we need to do. Firstly, read the example (including planning) below:

EXAMPLE:

Evidence chosen: “Over 200 Australian economists signed an open letter on Monday urging the government not to roll back too far too quickly.”

Research I undertook to find out extra details: I clicked on the link and read the letter. I noted that the economists made key points about not thinking that removing social distancing immediately will fix the economy and also, they outlined that deaths would cause further economic damage.

What this shows: Lots of experts think that we shouldn’t change the lockdown rules too quickly. They think we shouldn’t keep focusing on the economy vs public health and we should realise that the two are related.

My claim and explanation: It is hard to watch so many people lose their jobs and struggle financially. However, we shouldn’t be tricked into thinking that the answer is to remove social distancing rules and go back to life as normal. Even Australian economists, who are experts in the economy and who we can assume care deeply about Australia’s economic health, don’t think that is a good idea. Over 200 of them wrote a letter explaining why we shouldn’t move too quickly to change the rules. An important quote in the letter is: “A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.” You can read the open letter here.

Step 2.

Plan and then write your own persuasive paragraph using the following guides to help you:

Evidence chosen
Research I undertook to find out extra details (optional)
What this shows
My claim and explanation

Step 3.

Read over your claim and explanation. Consider the below questions:

Have you written clearly and credibly?
Have you considered which modality to use for each claim?
Have you checked your spelling and punctuation?

Step 4.

Share your paragraph with classmates, teachers or friends and family. After they have read your paragraph, have a discussion:

Had they heard this evidence before?
Did it change their mind about anything?
Did they find the evidence believable?

Taking It Further

Step 1.

Change the audience of your paragraph to your local newspaper. Go to your local newspaper’s website (you can usually find it by searching the name of your local council and newspaper) and find a contact address where you can submit a letter to the editor.

Step 2.

Add to your paragraph a short introduction of who you are and why you are writing to the paper. Sign off at the end of the letter (talk to your family about how to keep yourself safe and protect your privacy).

Step 3.

Wait and see - your letter may be published in the paper or online!

COVID-19 Exit Strategy

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